The High electoral commission has announced the final result of the past parliamentary election , in what’s known as the post revolution parliament .
The result revealed the balance of powers between the political forces in the Egyptian political spectrum .
No doubt the result revealed some facts we may summarize them in few points , as follow :
A -The Islamists -The discipline won the game :
The two main Islamic trends won together 71.8% , 47,1% for the leading Party Freedom and Justice Party ( FJP), the political wing of the Muslim brotherhood , and about 23% for the Salafi oriented Party “ Nour Party “ .
The result didn't surprise the analysts , since the two parties were the most organized. ,but what was the reason behind the decisive victory ???
The answer is in these points :
1- The powerful network that cover the country , this network that interacted with the average voters all over the country.
2- The simple and clear message , the message was delivered to the grassroots level , targeted ,not only the religious feelings of the average voters , but also the everyday issues which face the Egyptians after the revolution, such as the personal security , the unemployment , wages and salaries, the high prices of food and services ( in the issue of the prices they provided some kiosks in which they sold goods with coast price)
3- Very committed volunteers , those volunteers played the main role in electoral campaign , moreover in the election day , the two parties almost covered the whole polling centers all over the country with their party agents . in additional to the party agents, the two parties have a different kind of volunteers who deployed outside the polling centers to help the voters to find their names and number in the voters lists , this kind of( help) played a crucial role in directing the voting to these parties.
4- The strong discipline in the campaign literature , message all over the country . the two parties delivered the same message , the same campaign materials , the same brochures , leaflets , colors and branding all over the country, different from the other parties who couldn’t build the same political brand and the same message all over the country.
Eventually the discipline structure , campaign , volunteers won the electoral game .
but the good news for the secular political forces is the two parties, FJP, and Nour Party, are very far from forming one coalition. This fact may help the secular forces if they could use it in the smart way.
- B- Al Wafd Party – the past doesn’t save the present
Al Wafd Party is the oldest party among all the Egyptian parties , it was established amid the revolution of 1919 ,
Al Wafd is considered as the biggest liberal party , and the one which has the most stable party structure among the others.
Al Wafd Came in the Third place after the two Islamic Parties , it occupied 39 seats , 36 in the proportional system , and 3 seats in the individual system. About 8 %
Despite the fact that Al Wafd came in the third place - and the first among the secular forces- ,but this number of seats is very low ,taking into consideration the long history of the party , and its capacity.
The reasons behind this result could be as follow:
1- The Party paid more attention in the electoral campaign to its history , and even he chose a campaign slogan that says “ a future that has a history “ it was good slogan , but it was not enough , the voters in any campaign always ask “ what WILL you do ? “ not “ what DID you do ?”
2- The Party spent very High Budget on its TV campaign , but didn’t spend the same amount of money to the grassroots level , the party didn’t have any knocking door campaign , and its public events were not effective at all.
3- The party couldn’t provide or recruit a number of volunteer to deliver its message to the voters .
4- The party branches in the governorates couldn’t cover the polling committees with the party agents , and even they couldn’t provide the same service which were provided by the Islamists (kiosks around the poling centers to help voters to find their number in the voters lists, in the same time to direct voting )
5- The lack of the clear political vision and strategy was one of the main drawbacks of the party.
3 months before elections the party decided to form a political coalition with the Muslim brotherhood party (FJP), this coalition costed the party the votes of the Christians, and some other liberals. 10 days before the elections the party decided to withdraw from the coalition , this step costed the party the votes of the conservatives and was not enough to restore the Christian and liberal voters. This kind of tactics depicted the Al Wafd as a swing and unclear Party.
the party depicted its image as the one who has a Democratic history to persuade the voters , but this kind of campaigns proved that the past is not enough to save the present , and will not help to build the future , unless it is provided with clear vision.
C- The Egyptian Bloc , not enough to be “ against “
The Egyptian Bloc are formed from 3 parties , The Free Egyptians ( established after the revolution by the Copt tycoon Naguib Sawiras ) , Social Democratic Party ( established after the revolution by liberal leftist Intelligentsia ) and the Tagmuaa Party ( old leftist Party established in 1976)
The Egyptian Bloc came in the 4th place with 34 seats , one in individual system and 33 in Proportional system. About 7%.
Due to the high financial abilities of Naguib Sawiras the founder of the Free Egyptians Party ,The bloc spent high budget in its campaign in many governorates , especially Cairo, and it was supported by the Christian community and many of liberal voters . But it couldn’t secure more than 7%. The reasons could be as follow:
1- the coalition was supported by the Christian Coptic church , this fact enabled its opponent to label it as a sectarian bloc , this anti message provoked many of the average voters against the coalition.
2- The party structure of the 3 parties were very weak comparing to their opponents , to the extent that their lists fell apart in Alexandria , in the same time they couldn’t cover the whole polling centers with their agents in the electoral day.
3- The campaign team (including the members of the party) was hired for money , especially in the Free Egyptian Party, that destroyed the Spirit of volunteerism among the members of the party, this spirit could not be compensated by money .
4- The coalition built its message on the idea that” we are against the Islamists”, and this image didn’t provide the voters with a clear view about the issues that will be in the priorities of the bloc.
The result of the bloc proved that it is not enough to be against the Islamists or the Muslim brotherhood , but you should build your own image , the voters need to know “ who you are“ , not ” whom you are against”
D -The former NDP has no chance
After the revolution the former Ruling National Democratic Party ( NDP) was disbanded by a judicial Ruling, the members of the disbanded party established about 7 parties.
Despite all the calls to ban the members of the former NDP, the SCAF didn’t react to these calls , and they were allowed to run for election.
These parties couldn’t secure more than 15 seats, as a sign of a political death to the former ruling NDP.
The Political Map in the parliament...is it any opportunity to build strong coalitions???
The FJP came out from this election as the biggest winner, with 47 %, it means that 4 % is enough for them to build a narrow coalition.
The FJP declared it doesn’t have any desire to build a coalition with the Salafi Oriented Party El Nour , in the same time it announced its desire to cooperate with any other political bloc in the parliament ,which may send a very good signal to the other secular parties ( Al Wafd , SDP , Free Egyptians) .
But how the secular parties received this message from FJP???
- Al Wafd Supreme Council took the decision to not coordinate in the future with the FJP.
- Mr. Mohamed Abu Hamed the head of the “Free Egyptians” Parliamentary bloc gave a statement in which he refused to build any coalition with FJP.
- Only Mr. Mohamed Abu El Ghar the chairman of the Social Democratic Party accepted to negotiate with FJP, this negotiation caused to destroy the coalition of the Egyptian Bloc (the free Egyptians party declared it is not part of this coalition any more).
Such strategy may please the members and the supporters of the secular parties , but I believe it is fatal mistake and a premature strategy from political point of view for these reasons :
1- It deepens the polarization among the political forces in the parliament , which may endanger the future of Democracy in Egypt. This polarization could endanger the process of drafting the new constitution ( the main task for this parliament)
2- It shows the FJP as the party which seeks to compatibility , and the secular parties as the side which seeks to worsen the dispute. That could destroy the political image of these parties in front of the public opinion.
3- Rejecting the coalition with the FJP may push it to build a wide coalition with the radical orthodox Nour Party, a kind of coalition that may have a catastrophic side effects on the future of Democracy in Egypt, as the two party may produce together an extremist Islamic legislature.
The easiest way to change the reality is to accept it.
The secular parties should deal with the reality as it is, even if they want to change it in the future, and the reality says that the secular parties - or the civil parties as they like to say in Egypt- are not the majority in the parliament , and FJP is the leading party. And dealing with this fact is the only way to change it.( if they have any serious desire to change it).
The smart answer here to accept the coalition in order to separate between the 2 Islamic parties, to not let them to build a strong coalition which may endanger the new born democracy in this country , And to dilute the Islamic extremism with the time, as any coalition with the Islamic parties will push them to give some compromise which will reflect in pushing them towards the more democratization.
Building a coalition between the FJP and the secular parties is a political necessity even beyond the parties dispute.
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