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حزب الله... صمت بين خطأ التقدير واستنزاف القدرات

استمرار القصف الإسرائيلي للجنوب اللبناني بما فيها قصف اليوم العنيف على مناطق علي الطاهر ومرتفعات كفرتبنيت والنبطية الفوقا وجبل شقيف، رغم مرور أشهر على وقف إطلاق النار، يكشف عن واحدة من أكثر اللحظات التباسًا في مسار حزب الله منذ تأسيسه. الصمت الذي يلف الحزب ليس مجرّد خيار تكتيكي، بل لغز استراتيجي يدفع لتحليل أسبابه على مستويين: هل يراهن الحزب على أن "الكمون" سيقابل بكمون إسرائيلي؟ أم أن ما نراه هو نتيجة حقيقية لتصفية قدرات الردع، وتحول الحزب فعليًا إلى كيس ملاكمة في ساحة مفتوحة؟ أولًا: كمين التقدير الخاطئ السيناريو الأول يُفترض أن الحزب اختار التهدئة عن وعي، ظنًا منه أن امتصاص الضربات سيكبح شهية إسرائيل، وأنه كلما تراجع خطوة، هدأت النار المقابلة. لكن هذا الرهان على "عقلانية" الخصم يبدو حتى الآن خاسرًا. إسرائيل تقرأ الكمون كضعف، وتستثمر فيه بكل ما لديها من طيران واستطلاع وذخيرة دقيقة. من مارس إلى يونيو، نفذت أكثر من 900 ضربة، بعضها طال مواقع مفترضة لتخزين طائرات درون تحت الأرض، وأخرى استهدفت طرق الإمداد وصواريخ نوعية كان الحزب يحاول إخفاءها. ببساطة، إسرائيل لا تقرأ ا...

the battle over the judiciary










The battle over the Persecutor General Post was one of the battles in the hidden war between the Judiciary and the Presidency, and it indicates the second defeat for the presidency  in row, after the first lose when the Supreme Constitutional court rejected Morsi’s decree to restore the dissolved Parliament.
The purge of the Judiciary was one of the revolutionary main targets as it suffered under Mubark Era from the governmental interventions that affected its independence, moreover the common complaints of the slow justice due to the slowness of the litigations procedures in many of the Egyptian courts, but the Judiciary still one of the most   Impervious institutions for many reasons such:
1-      President Morsi in the two rounds against the Judiciary played the game according to the rulings and laws that set by Mubark and his ousted regime, that led to the two defeat  out of two confrontations, for instance Mr. Morsi and his advisors chose the moment after the  judicial ruling  from Cairo criminal court acquitted senior Mubarak-era officials of charges of  the 'Battle of the Camel'. Morsi decided to use the momentum of this ruling and the popular outrage against the Prosecution to dismiss chief of the prosecutors who was appointed by his ousted predecessor. But Morsi committed the mistake when he neglected that he lacks the legal power to take this radical step as the law doesn't give the president the right to dismiss the prosecutors, that’s why Morsi’s  weak action  could not resist the judges uprising .
2-      The inefficiency of  the President’s advisors that do not consider the consequences of each action  , this inefficiency put his in an embarrassing situation for one more time, and it may lead to more confusing decisions in the future. The question of the  skills abilities of the advisors is raised again.
3-      The absence of the national consensus, despite the fact the dismissal of the Prosecutor General was a revolutionary demand, but the severe disagreement between the opposition, and the President caused more fragmentation within the political spectrum, many of the civil forces exploit the step to attack the president, and labeled him as the one who doesn’t respect the rule of law.
4-      The fear of the Brotherhood domination over the vital keys of the Egyptian State motivated many of the revolutionary forces to entrench with the Prosecutor General against any more steps that may consolidate the President’s grip over the State institutions. many of these forces prefer to maintain the (bad) guy rather than giving the Muslim Brotherhood one more step forward.

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