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الفراغ المغري في مدخل البحر الأحمر

يمكن الانطلاق من مفهوم واحد جامع يفسّر كل ما يجري حول مدخل البحر الأحمر والقرن الأفريقي: الفراغ المُغري. ليس الفراغ هنا توصيفًا بل حكمًا سياسيًا. منطقة تتآكل فيها الدولة، تتراجع فيها السيادة، وتختفي القدرة على فرض القرار، فتتحول الجغرافيا من عبء على أهلها إلى إغراء لغيرهم. وفي العلاقات الدولية، الفراغ دائما يجد من يملأه. كل فراغ سيملأه أحدهم مدخل البحر الأحمر ليس مجرد ممر ملاحي، بل عقدة ربط بين المحيط الهندي وقلب المتوسط، وبين تجارة العالم وسلاسل الطاقة والأمن. ومع تفكك الصومال، وانقسام اليمن، واضطراب السودان، وتحوّل إريتريا إلى دولة مغلقة شديدة الهشاشة، تشكّل فراغ استراتيجي واسع، لا تحرسه دولة قادرة ولا تحكمه منظومة إقليمية مستقرة. القاعدة القديمة هنا تعمل بلا استئذان: كل فراغ سيملؤه أحدهم، لا بالضرورة الأكثر شرعية، بل الأكثر قدرة. الفرق بين الرغبة والقدرة كثير من الدول تعلن أن أمن البحر الأحمر “حيوي” أو “مصيري”. لكن السياسة لا تُقاس بالتصريحات، بل بالفرق بين الرغبة والقدرة. الرغبة شعور، أما القدرة فهي ميزانية، وقواعد، وأسطول، واستدامة. امتلاك مصلحة في حرية الملاحة لا يعني امتلاك ال...

the first 100 days in Egypt's Democracy



from Morsi Meter website


As the gap between the expectations and the reality is widening after the first 100 days of  Morsi’s presidency, the fact that says the revolutions don’t bring the magical solutions is confirmed.
Morsi failed to meet the high expectations of the Egyptians; moreover he failed to meet his own expectations about his performance, as he gave a lot of promises and achieved a little.
There are many different reasons may reveal Morsi poor performance in the 100-days plan as follow:

1-    Amid the bitter race between Morsi and Shafiq, both rivals paid more attention to how to win the race, and the deep desire to win the race was on the expense of the credibility of the bombastic promises of both sides. That means Morsi gave some promises to win, not to be fulfilled.
2-    Morsi and his organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, as opposition group, stayed for decades away from the executive apparatus of the Egyptian State, they did not know the dimensions of the real problems of the Egyptian economy, that’s why they underestimate the crisis that they may face, and the ways to deal with. Many of  Morsi promises lacked the realistic sense, and failed to feel the core of the problems, and even failed to determine the financial allocations for each promise, and either if he can provides these allocations or not, especially in such economic crisis. For instance Morsi promised to achieve progress in the traffic sector within 100 days, although any fair study to any of the Egyptian main cities, and main roads will reveal that the problem is more complicated than Morsi’s plan.
3-    Morsi was the first president that was elected democratically in the history of Egypt, after decades of dictatorship,  Mubark  for many Egyptians turned to be the main obstacle in their way to have better life, Mubark disposal heightened the expectations of many of Egyptians, those who got disappointed once they found out Morsi doesn’t have the magical solutions for their everyday suffering,  many of them turned after a while against Morsi, many professions went in  strikes that affected the weak economy( including the strikes of Doctors, bus drivers,  angry workers, and many other).

4-    Morsi faced one of the most critical challenges in his first 100 days that was the soft State that couldn’t enforce its law, the problem which was inherited from Mubark regime and became even much worse under the revolutionary state. He didn’t recognize many of his promises need a powerful State apparatus which doesn’t exist practically, that’s why he spent the main part of his first 100 days in restoring the vitality of the State system, and recognizing its mechanism. Moreover he found himself face to face with the problem of the inefficient corrupted bureaucracy which spread on large scale under Mubark regime. That leads to the fact that says any serious reforms without reforming the bureaucratic system in Egypt is in vain.
5-    The appearance of the terrorism again in Sinai peninsula, which dragged the attention of Morsi and his cabinet from the developmental plans, to the threats that may turn Sinai to a territory out of Cairo control.
6-    No doubt Morsi achieved different aims of great importance, like getting rid of the SCAF  powerful military Generals , to the extent that he accomplished the most crucial aim for the revolutionary forces when he got rid of Field Marshal Hussien Tantawy smoothly in a legal coup, that was implemented  sooner than any expectations. Moreover he laid out a vital foreign policy, which aimed at restoring the Egyptian role in Africa, with vivid cooperation with the Arab world, strengthening the relations with Turkey, improving links with EU, maintaining good relations with US.  In additional to a real improvement in the personal security in the Egyptian cities.  But despite of the fact all these policies gained the expected popularity , but eventually the people need to feel some more tangible change in their everyday life, which still  out of reach so far.

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