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حزب الله... صمت بين خطأ التقدير واستنزاف القدرات

استمرار القصف الإسرائيلي للجنوب اللبناني بما فيها قصف اليوم العنيف على مناطق علي الطاهر ومرتفعات كفرتبنيت والنبطية الفوقا وجبل شقيف، رغم مرور أشهر على وقف إطلاق النار، يكشف عن واحدة من أكثر اللحظات التباسًا في مسار حزب الله منذ تأسيسه. الصمت الذي يلف الحزب ليس مجرّد خيار تكتيكي، بل لغز استراتيجي يدفع لتحليل أسبابه على مستويين: هل يراهن الحزب على أن "الكمون" سيقابل بكمون إسرائيلي؟ أم أن ما نراه هو نتيجة حقيقية لتصفية قدرات الردع، وتحول الحزب فعليًا إلى كيس ملاكمة في ساحة مفتوحة؟ أولًا: كمين التقدير الخاطئ السيناريو الأول يُفترض أن الحزب اختار التهدئة عن وعي، ظنًا منه أن امتصاص الضربات سيكبح شهية إسرائيل، وأنه كلما تراجع خطوة، هدأت النار المقابلة. لكن هذا الرهان على "عقلانية" الخصم يبدو حتى الآن خاسرًا. إسرائيل تقرأ الكمون كضعف، وتستثمر فيه بكل ما لديها من طيران واستطلاع وذخيرة دقيقة. من مارس إلى يونيو، نفذت أكثر من 900 ضربة، بعضها طال مواقع مفترضة لتخزين طائرات درون تحت الأرض، وأخرى استهدفت طرق الإمداد وصواريخ نوعية كان الحزب يحاول إخفاءها. ببساطة، إسرائيل لا تقرأ ا...

the first 100 days in Egypt's Democracy



from Morsi Meter website


As the gap between the expectations and the reality is widening after the first 100 days of  Morsi’s presidency, the fact that says the revolutions don’t bring the magical solutions is confirmed.
Morsi failed to meet the high expectations of the Egyptians; moreover he failed to meet his own expectations about his performance, as he gave a lot of promises and achieved a little.
There are many different reasons may reveal Morsi poor performance in the 100-days plan as follow:

1-    Amid the bitter race between Morsi and Shafiq, both rivals paid more attention to how to win the race, and the deep desire to win the race was on the expense of the credibility of the bombastic promises of both sides. That means Morsi gave some promises to win, not to be fulfilled.
2-    Morsi and his organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, as opposition group, stayed for decades away from the executive apparatus of the Egyptian State, they did not know the dimensions of the real problems of the Egyptian economy, that’s why they underestimate the crisis that they may face, and the ways to deal with. Many of  Morsi promises lacked the realistic sense, and failed to feel the core of the problems, and even failed to determine the financial allocations for each promise, and either if he can provides these allocations or not, especially in such economic crisis. For instance Morsi promised to achieve progress in the traffic sector within 100 days, although any fair study to any of the Egyptian main cities, and main roads will reveal that the problem is more complicated than Morsi’s plan.
3-    Morsi was the first president that was elected democratically in the history of Egypt, after decades of dictatorship,  Mubark  for many Egyptians turned to be the main obstacle in their way to have better life, Mubark disposal heightened the expectations of many of Egyptians, those who got disappointed once they found out Morsi doesn’t have the magical solutions for their everyday suffering,  many of them turned after a while against Morsi, many professions went in  strikes that affected the weak economy( including the strikes of Doctors, bus drivers,  angry workers, and many other).

4-    Morsi faced one of the most critical challenges in his first 100 days that was the soft State that couldn’t enforce its law, the problem which was inherited from Mubark regime and became even much worse under the revolutionary state. He didn’t recognize many of his promises need a powerful State apparatus which doesn’t exist practically, that’s why he spent the main part of his first 100 days in restoring the vitality of the State system, and recognizing its mechanism. Moreover he found himself face to face with the problem of the inefficient corrupted bureaucracy which spread on large scale under Mubark regime. That leads to the fact that says any serious reforms without reforming the bureaucratic system in Egypt is in vain.
5-    The appearance of the terrorism again in Sinai peninsula, which dragged the attention of Morsi and his cabinet from the developmental plans, to the threats that may turn Sinai to a territory out of Cairo control.
6-    No doubt Morsi achieved different aims of great importance, like getting rid of the SCAF  powerful military Generals , to the extent that he accomplished the most crucial aim for the revolutionary forces when he got rid of Field Marshal Hussien Tantawy smoothly in a legal coup, that was implemented  sooner than any expectations. Moreover he laid out a vital foreign policy, which aimed at restoring the Egyptian role in Africa, with vivid cooperation with the Arab world, strengthening the relations with Turkey, improving links with EU, maintaining good relations with US.  In additional to a real improvement in the personal security in the Egyptian cities.  But despite of the fact all these policies gained the expected popularity , but eventually the people need to feel some more tangible change in their everyday life, which still  out of reach so far.

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